Quick answer: Mortgage rates have climbed from around 6% in spring to near 7% this fall, after the Fed raised its benchmark rate on September 16. Experts widely expect at least one more increase before year end. For Orange County buyers, that means smaller budgets but also less competition for the homes still on the market. For sellers, accurate pricing on day one matters more than ever.
If you have been house hunting since spring and still have not found the right place, you have probably noticed the math getting harder. You are not imagining it, and you are not alone.
Zillow's latest research confirms what a lot of my buyers have been feeling. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat around 6% back in spring, and it has since climbed to the upper end of its recent multi-year range heading into fall. A few things pushed rates up together: renewed geopolitical tension drove oil prices higher, and August's jobs report came in far stronger than expected, adding roughly three times as many jobs as forecasters predicted. Strong job numbers are good news for the economy, but they also give the Fed less reason to ease off, which tends to keep mortgage rates elevated rather than bringing them down. When Zillow published this research, they had revised their end-of-year rate forecast upward to 6.7%.
Since then, rates have moved even further. The Fed met on September 16 and raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed to right around 7%. Fed officials signaled they expect at least one more rate increase before the end of the year, and the general tone from the meeting was that higher rates are likely the operating reality for a while, not a temporary spike.
What This Looks Like in Orange County Right Now
Nationally, this is playing out as a slower fall for buyers. Locally, here is what I am actually seeing.
As of last week, the 30-year fixed rate here was running close to 6.8%, noticeably higher than the same week last year. Mortgage applications dipped for the week, but purchase applications are still tracking a few percent above where they were at this time in 2025, so buyers have not left the market, they have just gotten more careful.
Home values across the county are still holding up. Single-family homes sold at a median around $1.47 million in July, up roughly 3% from a year earlier, and inventory has stayed below last year's levels for several months running. That combination, fewer homes for sale plus steady demand, is part of why prices have not softened the way higher rates might normally suggest they should. Homes are also moving fast in the middle price tiers. The $1 million to $2 million range is selling in about 41 days, the quickest pace in the county, while homes above $2 million are taking closer to two months as buyers at that level get more selective.
What I Am Telling My Buyers and Sellers
For buyers: if you were pre-approved in the spring at a lower rate, it is worth getting a fresh pre-approval now rather than assuming your old number still applies. The payment difference on a typical OC home compared to a year ago is real, and I would rather you know that upfront than fall in love with a home you have to walk away from. This is also where rate buydowns, adjustable-rate options, and seller credits toward closing costs are worth a real conversation, not just a mention.
Here is the upside a lot of buyers overlook. Higher rates push other buyers to the sidelines, which means less competition for the homes still on the market. Fewer bidding wars, more room to negotiate on price or terms, and less pressure to waive contingencies just to compete. If you can make the payment work, this is a market where you have more leverage as a buyer than you did a year ago, even though the rate itself is higher.
For sellers: pricing accurately on day one matters more in a market like this than it did last spring. Well-priced homes are still moving in a matter of weeks. Overpriced ones are the ones sitting past 30 days and eventually needing a price cut, which almost always nets less than pricing it right from the start.
For anyone sitting on a rate from a few years ago and wondering whether to move at all, that is a longer conversation, and one worth having before you assume the math does not work.
Will Mortgage Rates Keep Rising?
I want to be honest about this instead of just telling you what you want to hear: the near-term signal points toward rates staying high, and possibly ticking up a bit more before they come back down. The Fed's own projections after the September meeting showed most officials expect at least one more hike this year, and their next meeting is October 27-28. Inflation is still running above where the Fed wants it, and that is the main thing keeping rates elevated.
I will say, forecasters do not all agree on where things land from here, and rate predictions have been wrong plenty of times over the past few years. Some expect rates to stabilize once the Fed is done hiking, others think it will take longer to come down. My honest read is do not wait for a number that may not come. If a home works for your budget at today's rate, that is the decision to make. You can always refinance later if rates drop. You cannot go back in time and buy today's home at today's price if you wait and it sells to someone else.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are mortgage rates going up in Orange County right now? Yes. As of late September 2026, the 30-year fixed rate is near 7%, up from around 6% in the spring, following the Fed's September 16 rate hike, its first since 2023.
Is it a good time to buy a home in Orange County with rates this high? It depends on your budget and timeline, but higher rates have thinned out buyer competition, which gives serious buyers more negotiating room than they had a year ago. It is worth running your specific numbers rather than deciding based on the headline rate alone.
Will mortgage rates go back down soon? Possibly, but not necessarily soon. Fed officials have signaled at least one more rate increase may be coming before the end of the year, and their next meeting is October 27-28. Forecasts vary on when rates might ease after that.
If you are trying to figure out what current rates actually mean for your specific budget or your specific home, that is a conversation I would rather have with real numbers than general ones. Send me a message and I will run it for you.
Rate and jobs data referenced from Zillow's research team and subsequent Federal Reserve announcements. You can read Zillow's full report here.
